Rebel Violence Puts Poll Date in
Doubt
Will Nepal's Parliament be restored?
Suman Pradhan
KATHMANDU:
Apprehension is growing that Nepal's general elections, slated
for Nov. 13, may well be impossible to hold in the wake of rising
Maoist rebel violence in large swaths of this Himalayan kingdom.
Fresh elections to the 205-seat House of Representatives were
called by Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba after he dissolved
parliament in May. His action was precipitated by heavy 
infighting
within the ruling Nepali Congress party over the issue of the
Maoist insurgency and emergency rule.
At the time, the government was confident that polls could be
held and the violence kept under check. But with only seven weeks
to go before the elections, the government and other political
parties are dithering. Though ministers are still claiming that
polls can be held, they themselves are apprehensive in private.
To allay fears about the election pushing through, Deuba has urged
Maoist rebels -- who have been fighting to turn this Himalayan
kingdom into a communist republic since early 1996 -- to ”sincerely
and honestly” pursue peace talks with the government.
”The
elections should be an opportunity for them (Maoists) to join
the political mainstream and effect a safe landing from their
violent past,” he told the English-language newspaper 'Kathmandu
Post'.
But his appeals have convinced no one, neither the rebels nor
the other opposition parties. Six
of the political parties have already banded together and denounced
the government's inability to build a conducive environment for
the elections.
They handed over a petition to Deuba last week to either do all
he can bolster security or recommend to King Gyanendra that polls
cannot be held -- and therefore reinstate the dissolved parliament.
”We
don't see how polls can be held in such a deteriorating security
environment,” says Subash Nembang, a powerful leader of
the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), a major
political party and one of those which have banded together to
appeal to Deuba.
”The
campaigning hasn't begun and there is fear in the grassroots level,''
he argues.
In many ways, analysts blame the government for creating the present
situation. Deuba's troubles began immediately after emergency
rule - in place since November to deal with the Maoists - was
lifted on Aug. 28.
As long as the emergency lasted, the rebels, who operate mainly
in the jungles and hills of western and eastern Nepal, lay low.
But
since Aug. 28, they have been planting bombs in urban areas and
raiding police and army installations in remote districts.
More than 200 security personnel have been killed by the Maoists
since the emergency was lifted. The escalating violence has convinced
the government's top law enforcement officials that security cannot
be guaranteed for the polls.
Home Secretary Tika Dutta Niraula admitted this week that security
was a problem. He appealed to the independent Election Commission
(EC) to defer the polls in eight phases to allow security forces
time to move around to protect polling centres. The commission
has yet to decide on the matter.
This is a scenario that was unthinkable once. Nepal's
23 million people greatly value their multi-party democracy and
constitutional monarchy, won after a bitter people's movement
in 1990. But just 12 years of democracy has bred resentment in
large sections of the populace.
Analysts say that it is not so much democracy itself but the rampant
corruption, nepotism and the ruling elites' inability to look
beyond self-interest that is breeding the people's contempt. The
Maoists have only latched on to this resentment, they say.
”The
situation has progressed to such a state that there is genuine
apprehension about the future,” says political commentator
Narayan Wagle. ”What happens if security cannot be guaranteed
and polls are called off? How will the ensuing constitutional
crisis be dealt with?”
That is an area many are turning their attention to now. Under
Nepal's constitution, the constitutional monarch can bring back
to life a dead parliament if elections cannot be held for one
or the other reason.
The six major political parties, including the largest Nepali
Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal (UML), are all pining
for this option now.”
Any democratic party would want the polls to be held,” says
Narhari Acharya, a leading ideologue within the Congress party.
”But we have to
think beyond too. We have to be realistic enough to assess the
situation and deal accordingly.”
Deuba however loathes the idea of appealing to the King to reinstate
parliament. ”There is no need to think of such options,”
he said in the interview with the 'Post'. ”We are capable
enough to ensure security and hold the elections.”
What he hopes for now is to reach an understanding with the rebels
to not disrupt polls. But given his earlier policies, Deuba has
a long battle on his hands.
When he came to power last year in July, Deuba immediately began
peace negotiations with the rebel leadership. But the talks broke
down in November and the rebels resumed their violent campaign,
forcing the prime minister to declare emergency rule.
During the entire course of emergency rule, Deuba adopted a hard-line
approach, rebuffing countless attempts from the rebels to resume
peace talks, terming them as ”ploys to buy time”.
But now, the situation has reversed, mainly because security forces
have lost a slew of battles in recent fighting. The
fact that the rebels have vowed to disrupt the polls have not
helped
the matter either. In the districts outside Kathmandu, political
functionaries are afraid to venture out to campaign, according
to local media reports.
The government was given a ray of hope over the weekend when Pushpa
Kamal Dahal and Dr Baburam Bhattarai, the rebel duo who constitute
the top Maoist leadership, issued a statement calling for a roundtable
discussion between all political forces to resolve the present
crisis.
It was after their statement that Deuba called for peace negotiations,
but the rebels have yet to respond. Analysts predict further turmoil
all the way up to Nov.13 and beyond. As the 'Post' recently wrote,
”This is going to be the longest two months.”
