By
Shaheen Sehbai
WASHINGTON:
Caught in the quagmire of persistently elusive political legitimacy
at home, Pakistan’s General Pervez Musharraf has leaned on
his relations with the US and the West to seek recognition. His
only claim and justification to continue staying in power has been
Pakistan’s complex geostrategic situation and its imperatives
for the West’s war on terrorism.
So
while he was accepted and promoted as their closest ally in this
war, Musharraf tried his best for almost a year to achieve some
degree of legitimacy at home. He appears to have failed. His dubious
referendum to elect him as President has not been recognized by
the established political forces, his amendments in the Constitution
have been continuously rejected and his house of cards built with
borrowed, purchased and coerced political loyalties has not provided
him any cause for comfort. He is a man with his legs in two boats
with the waters getting rougher by the day.
These
are the ground realities which even the closest of Musharraf supporters
abroad are now forced to consider. They now believe Musharraf cannot
sustain this fragile structure for long. The balancing act could
flounder any moment. Washington and the West have to look for alternatives
and be ready with some when they need them.
Their
obvious first stop is to test the political set up which presents
itself as elected and representative, the doubts about its creation
and genuineness notwithstanding. Whatever one may say, the elected
leadership has taken principled stands and refused to surrender
to Army’s never ending political ambitions. Even the coalition
partners of General Musharraf have been urging him quietly to agree
to concessions for the sake of sustaining his own system. They realize
that the alternatives would be disastrous not just for Musharraf
but for his supporters as well.
In
the middle of this situation comes the invitation from Washington
to Prime Minister Jamali to come for his postponed official visit
to the White House. Coming back to back with repeated Musharraf
visits, it becomes rather obvious that Washington is looking for
alternatives and is in a bit of a hurry as well.
The
aura of invincibility around General Musharraf is thus crumbling.
It is giving way to a search for other options in Pakistan. The
US media too has picked up the vibes and started blaming Musharraf
for not being able to deliver what he has been promising. Mainstream
newspapers as New York Times, Washington Post, Christian Science
Monitor and several others have come out with damning reports.
Even
US Ambassador in Pakistan, Nancy Powell, has joined the chorus,
although her complaint was packaged in a sugar coated pill. This
is what she told the Indian "Business Standard":
""It is a mystery to us how the Washington Post, the
New York Times and the Wall Street Journal can find
the Taliban in Quetta and the Pakistan government cannot."
Musharraf’s
strategists have found the going so tough they have launched major
diversionary campaigns at home. Both the relations with India and
the controversial water issues in Pakistan are being used for this
purpose with desperate eagerness. The problem is that the more Musharraf
tries to convince the Pakistani people that he is needed to resolve
these long standing and critical issues, the more an impression
is created that he is the main roadblock in their resolution.
The
relations with India are a classic example. The more Musharraf presses
New Delhi for resumption of the dialogue, the rogue elements of
his Army and intelligence agencies subvert him with greater vengeance.
This brings the Indian leadership back to the point where they question
Musharraf’s credibility, he being the architect of Kargil
and, according to Benazir Bhutto, planner of many more adventures,
including an attack on Srinagar. The Indian objections have forced
even Washington to raise their voice against cross border terrorism
in Kashmir. Musharraf’s vacillating positions on key members
of Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden have added more weight to voices
doubting his credibility.
Domestically
his attempts to gain sympathies of Punjab by advocating the cause
of Kalabagh Dam have also been counter productive. His own coalition
partners, especially from Sindh and NWFP have spoken out loud against
his desperate bid to shift the focus of battle from his legitimacy
to sharing of waters. Now he has given a deadline of June 2004 saying
he will decide by then what to do.
This
is again going to hurt him more than help him. The domestic Opposition
will now rally not just on constitutional issues against him but
will suck in all those who are opposed to the Punjab position on
key water issues. Musharraf’s self-proclaimed position as
the sole arbiter of all these complex and life-and-death issues
for various provinces has never been, and will never be, accepted.
Why should provinces depend on his judgment when no one knows how
long he will be there and what chaos may be unleashed once he is
gone.
Prime
Minister Jamali has in such a situation done well by keeping his
profile at the lowest, publicly accepting Musharraf as his boss
and telling the world that he should not be held responsible for
any of the decisions which are being taken.
But
this position may change when Washington starts talking directly
to Jamali as a possible alternate. Mr. Jamali has now to convince
the Bush Administration and Congress that he could do a better job
by creating a political consensus on contentious issues and bringing
liberal and moderate political forces on board. That is why he has
indicated that he would travel to Washington after consulting with
Opposition parties. This would not have been liked by General Musharraf
a bit.
The
tragedy is that Musharraf who was popular when he arrived on the
scene, was acceptable as a civilian leader to almost everybody had
he agreed to become an elected president, is now a liability for
every one. Questions about how much support he enjoys within the
Army are being raised and when he answers these questions with chest-thumping
claims that every one was behind him, he looks more unconvincing.
Recent arrests of middle ranking Army officers belie his claims.
He has no option but to keep making these claims and keep living
a life which is planned and protected on a day to day basis.
Practically
Musharraf cannot, and does not trust any one. Even mobile telephones
of his own coalition MPs in Punjab were confiscated by his security
agencies when he recently went there for a meeting. This is an untenable
situation and cannot be sustained. Something has to give. Pray the
transition is smooth.
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