Can diplomacy deliver India Pakistan
peace?
By
Saeed Naqvi
PAKISTAN'S
response to India’s 12 proposals on the eve of Diwali has
inspired a bewildering range of headlines in the English language
dailies. Pak googly to India peace bid, says The Pioneer
across five columns. Pak accepts many CBMs, attaches riders to
others: The Hindu. Pak reply is an acid smile: The
Asian Age. Pak responds, gives peace offer reverse swing:
Hindustan Times. More fingers crossed than thumbs up:
The Indian Express. Pak responds with riders: The
Times of India.
Given
the adversarial edge in Indo-Pak diplomacy, one would have expected
sides to score points as in a college debate. But what does one
make of this suggestion made by the Pakistani spokesman: “Pakistan
would offer treatment for disabled Kashmiris and would assist
and help widows and victims of rape, affected by various operations
launched by security agencies”.
The spokesman must reflect on a question: does a loaded suggestion
of this nature go down well with public opinion on the sub-continent?
Or does it simply satisfy hawks in the Pakistani establishment
and provoke those on the other side of the border? By all means
be clever. But remember, the purpose of the exercise is to win
hearts and minds, soften the atmosphere. Only then can discussions,
even negotiations, begin on Kashmir.
Heaven
knows New Delhi has made horrendous mistakes in Kashmir and Indian
spokesmen too have flailed their arms. But ever since Prime Minister
Vajpayee launched the peace initiative on April 18 in Srinagar,
his purpose has been to work towards a harmonious sub continent,
step by step, in Kashmir and on the Indo-Pak track, without ever
obviating that eventual dialogue on the all important issue which
Pakistan insists must happen at the very outset.
Pakistan
wants a composite dialogue, something New Delhi was insisting
on at one stage. It is possible even now provided Pakistan demonstrably
establishes that terrorism across the LoC has stopped. This certificate
is not available to Islamabad even from its friendliest interlocutors
in the west.
As
happens in democracies, an incantation or mantra over time circumscribes
the government’s capacity to act. So it becomes impossible
for the prime minister (possibly against his own instincts) to
resile from a stand on which public opinion has been mobilized:
dialogue isn’t possible unless ‘‘cross-border
terrorism” stops. Certainly not on the eve of crucial polls.
It
is speculated that the Americans have exerted pressure to extract
the 12 suggestions from India. The Diwali initiative has taken
all diplomats completely by surprise. A senior European diplomat
came closest to guessing that “something was cooking”
when he knocked on all doors at the MEA and received the same
response: “the officer is in a meeting”. This was
October 22, the day External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha made
the announcement.
Pakistani
diplomats are a trifle hurt that New Delhi bypassed them and announced
the proposals to the media. They may have a point but Indian officials
cite Musharraf’s televised breakfast meeting with Indian
editors at Agra and, more recently, his declarations during the
visit of Laloo Prasad Yadav and 32 other MPs to Lahore in front
of live cameras.
There
is a view in New Delhi that at this stage of the Indo-Pak script
there is no alternative to public diplomacy — to reach out
to the establishment in full view of the people who have demonstrated
overwhelming support for increased interaction at all levels.
This is true of people in both countries. For evidence, just replay
tapes of Laloo’s visit to Lahore, Baby Noor’s return
to Pakistan, the reception for a 120 member delegation of Federation
of Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry and so on.
Admittedly,
diplomacy in the open is risk prone. India suggested November
3 and 4 or November 10 and 11 for civil aviation talks. The dates
did not suit Islamabad because of Ramadan, although arrangements
for prayers and fasting are commonplace in New Delhi. New Delhi
then suggested December 1 and 2. A Lahore newspaper screamed:
Pakistan rejects India’s offer for air link talks.
This
created the impression that someone in the Pak foreign office
had “leaked the rejection”. But when Pakistan accepted
the December dates, the knee jerk reaction in New Delhi to the
news item was found to be based on mischievous reporting. Likewise
the Pakistani spokesman’s complaint that someone in authority
had described the twelve proposals as a “tactical”
ploy was, in effect, the spokesman reacting to an unsourced news
item.
The
proposals and the response must be seen against the larger backdrop.
Vajpayee’s initiatives follow a series of positive developments.
The strategic partnership with the US is on course. This is without
prejudice to relations with Russia and Europe. Trade with China
along with broad spectrum political ties have crossed milestones.
The
Look East policy is bearing fruit. After the SAARC summit a new
economic quadrangle will envelop Myanmar. US Deputy Secretary
of State Richard Armitage’s October 28 statement paving
the way for a new relationship with Iran is vindication of India’s
stand: the US-Iran equation must normalize for regional security
and for stabilizing Iraq. Open skies with Sri Lanka are success
stories.
The
picture from Islamabad looks different even though the US state
department softens things for Musharraf by casting him as heroic
ally despite, ironically, the difficulties they heap upon him:
Dawood, nuclear help to North Korea, links of Taliban remnants
with the Pak Army. Add to this the Legal Framework order, Shia-Sunni
divisions and his plate looks so full of problems that Americans
flinch from pushing him a little harder on stopping India related
terrorism.
Musharraf,
of course, calculates that the Americans, up to their ears in
Iraq, must show something resembling success in Afghanistan. The
Loya Jirga in Kabul in December will pave the way for elections.
The international community is unlikely to rock his boat until
Afghanistan is sorted out. Vajpayee, meanwhile, is in a win-win
situation. If his Pak initiatives succeed, his stature as a statesman
grows. Alternatively, Pakistan stands out in bold relief as obstructionist.
