A
military guard watching a mosque after several bombings in Karachi
Saner Elements
in Pakistan Army Must Stop Musharraf Before It is Too Late
By
Wajid Shamsul Hasan
LONDON:
In October 1958 General Ayub Khan had accused the then political
leaders - by far one of the most innocent and sincere lot from
the Pakistan movement mould - of throwing the country to dogs.
His
canard was typical of military men who somehow, despite their
brain being in the wrong place, think themselves to be of some
superior race among homo sapiens than the civilians. Although
Ayub could not be attributed of having virtue of high intelligence,
he definitely had a personality that impressed the foreigners,
not because of his leadership qualities. Popular admiration to
him was due to his Errol Flynn's looks. He had earned quite a
notoriety for introducing corruption as a state policy of development
and growth-starting with his family.
His
successor General Yahya got his fame from his escapade as a prisoner
of war. How good he and his contemporary uniformed colleagues
professionally were could be judged from the humiliation of surrender
and disintegration of Quaid's Pakistan. Next in line of military
dictators was General Ziaul Haq. Initially he was described as
a look-alike of Terry Thomas but later he proved he was not a
joke.
He
had staged a coup in July 1977 to end 'civil war-like' conditions
and to hold free and fair elections in 90 days. "Not a day
longer I shall stay and military will go back to the barracks"
handing over power to civilians, used to be his oft-repeated pledge.
He ruled the country for more than 11 years ruthlessly, hanging
Pakistan's first elected Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto on
a contrived 4-3 judgment, which, one of the judges, Nasim Hasan
Shah, who hanged him, recently described as a 'judicial murder.'
Zia
castrated the nation by extensive abuse of whip, executions and
long jail sentences to hundreds and thousands of political dissidents,
mostly PPP leaders and workers. Divine intervention saved the
country from the curse when he had made his intentions known to
public that he would neither give up his post of the army chief
nor relinquish the office of the President as long he would live.
Gen
Zia, however, was a true disciple of Niccolo Machiavelli. He had
made a very strong observation that Pakistan would not survive
a fourth martial law. His successors got it well into their heads
and have ever since seen to it that without imposing martial law
they should have full control over power and country's resources.
When
Pakistan's fourth and perhaps the last military dictator staged
his coup in October 1999, he did not, technically, impose martial
law while involving the military more extensively than ever before
in the abuse of political power, judiciary and economic resources
and converting Pakistan into a garrison state.
General
Musharraf, who also has his double among Indian film actors, unlike
the previous dictators, promised to the nation the moon, rivers
of milk and honey, peace and prosperity and don't forget Quaid's
democracy in place of sham democracy.
Now
nearly five years down the road, we have none of what he had promised.
Rather, it is he who is now throwing the country to dogs and not
those political leaders in exile who he would, to borrow the word
from his recently pronounced dictionary of enlightenment and moderation,
to "kick" if they do not acquiesce in to his design
to rule forever and ever.
He
has imposed one-man rule and calls it democracy. Hitherto unknown
financial scandals involving billions in state-run institutions
like PIA and military establishment, import of rotten wheat, administration
of expired and dilapidating polio vaccine, supply of contaminated
drinking water, taking over of state lands to dole out among his
colleagues to buy their support etc. have broken all previous
records of corruption.
Great
Roman statesman Cicero had observed that certain signs precede
certain changes. In some of my previous columns published in the
last few weeks, I have been underscoring the signs that forecast
inevitable changes. I have also been emphasizing that invisible
hands would create lot of chaos and anarchy to provide a window
of opportunity to President Musharraf to remain glued to his Khaki
and to carry out a hidden agenda given to him by his masters that
includes denuclearisation of Pakistan, reduction of its army and
acceptance of Line of Control as final settlement of Kashmir dispute.
I had forewarned of sectarian violence and we have seen month
of May being one of mayhem in blood of innocent people.
President
Musharraf has been playing a very dangerous game to keep himself
in power. In doing so he does not realize the dynamics of change.
In my last week's column I had said: "Freak contraptions
that come into existence through test-tube experimentations are
destined to collapse and disappear despite the best efforts of
their anorchous procreators and beneficiaries."
We have seen the replacement of Sindh Chief Minister with yet
another nominee of the agencies. When invisible hands manage the
affairs, it does not matter who is put as a front man to bear
the brunt of failures.
Mostly generals are averse to use of decent language, either out
of ignorance or their homely bearing, Musharraf's foul words in
his latest two-hour long interview to ARY Digital Channel, besides
little bit of the two-were more of a manifestation of panic in
a desperate man trying to hang onto the last straw to save himself
from drowning in a sea of self-created problems.
The
recent change in Sindh indicates that Musharraf's house of cards
is collapsing especially when the writing on the wall spells boldly,
the beginning of his end. Will it be between June 15 and end July
or take a little longer, could be any body's guess. It is certainly
around the corner.
Musharraf
is going to become a victim of his own contradictions. His policy
of running with the American hare and hunting with the Jihadi
hounds is boomeranging on him. Think tankers in Washington must
be profusely scratching their heads when they come across such
horrendous statements like that of Musharraf's Religious Affairs
Minister and son of his mentor General Zia ul Haq, Ejaz ul Haq,
declaring that he would not hesitate to become a human bomb to
wage Jihad in service of Islamic causes.
Such
desires by his ministers to become human bombs have added strength
to the conviction of the American analysts who already suspect
Musharraf's sincerity to Bush's war on terrorism. Besides, it
also exposes the hollowness of Musharraf's commitment to enlightened
moderation.
I
had also stated in the previous column: "Law and order has
become a fig leaf just big enough to hide the shrunken imbecility
of the government". There could not be a more tragic rendering
into reality of my observation than the attempt to assassinate
Karachi's Corps Commander that left at least 11 persons slain
under the barrage of bullets fired from automatic weapons by terrorists
on June 10 including seven army personnel.
As
in most of the cases in the past, despite government's claim to
have found clues, we do not know whether the culprits involved
in the ambush would be caught or not. It is the nature of the
incident that is extremely perturbing especially when the target
was corps commander and majority of those who got killed were
army personnel. Fatal hit that killed General Salim Hayat's driver
shows how close he was to be struck by assassin's bullets. It
was perhaps his sheer luck that he got away in the terrorist operation
unhurt although rumors are persisting that he was also injured.
This
tragic incident should be read in the light of earlier confession
by Musharraf himself that some junior army and air force officers
were involved in the two assassination attempts on him in December
last year. Before that, there had been attempts on him as well.
Though it did not get public exposure or was confirmed, the most
serious one on him was made in September 2002 when one his guards
fired a shot at him. His bullet-proof vest saved him. Some other
incidents are also mentioned but most of them have been dismissed
as stage-managed to convey to Washington the amount of risk General
Musharraf has been taking by sticking his neck out in its war
on terrorism.
Notwithstanding
what has been stage-managed and what is real, the fact of the
matter is that Musharraf has created many enemies by his external
and internal policies. Foremost among such elements are those
foreign Jihadis who he used to feed out of his hands for a long
time to carry out his proxy operations. It is human nature to
forget one's enemy but not to forgive a friend who turns into
one's foe. This is relevant vis-à-vis Al-Qaeda, Taliban
and homegrown and Pakistani madrassas-educated and trained Jihadis.
They feel betrayed and they are after Musharraf's blood. He is
also hated by them for having become an outright American stooge
carrying out Washington's anti-Islamic and global strategic agenda.
Secondly,
Musharraf has created many enemies among his military constituency.
Those senior officers who were aspiring to be four-star generals
and replace him as Chief of Staff are not happy because of his
sticking to his uniform. Only a very few get to the highest rank
and every
one among the lieutenant generals aspires to retire as a four-star
general.
Thirdly,
he has caused immense consternation in the lower, middle and higher
ranks by Wana operations at the behest of the Americans. Many
in the army accuse him of pitching his military against its own
people-especially those to whom Pakistan owes Azad Kashmir and
international acceptance of Kashmir as a dispute between India
and Pakistan. Besides, the Pashtun tribes in
South Waziristan have also stood as bulwark of defence between
Pakistan and Afghanistan especially in those days when Kabul was
supportive of the creation of an independent Pashtunistan carved
out of Pakistan's NWFP.
Fourthly,
his war on the people in Wana has caused anger among the tribesmen.
Following the laying of siege of South Waziristan by the Pakistan
Army and denying the tribesmen food and succor has forced dissident
leaders like Nek Muhammad to threaten Islamabad and that the Pashtun
tribesmen would now take war into other cities of Pakistan. The
ambush of Karachi Corps Commander could be the message from them
in reaction to killing of more than 30 people in Wana in South
Waziristan
The
question being asked is: where are we heading for? This brings
us to Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's warning to the military
establishment following the surrender to Indian army at Dhaka
in 1971. He was absolutely right when he had emphasized that politicization
of the army drains out its professionalism, converts its personnel
into tin-pot soldiers and generals and leads to consequences as
that of erstwhile East Pakistan.
Now
the situation has worsened. Under Musharraf, Pakistani Army is
going through a very difficult time. Its fighting capacity is
eroding fast due to the induction of proxy warriors from amongst
the foreign Jihadis to carry out its operations. Besides Kargil,
its dismal performance came into focus during the previous Wana
operations when its troops were captured by the
Uzbek, Chechen and Taliban fighters. They were released in exchange
of the civilians who had been arrested by the Pakistani law-enforcers
for providing refuge to the foreigners.
Attacks
on Musharraf by army personnel and now the ambush of Karachi Corps
Commander-establish beyond doubt that the General has lost all
control, that his failures and policies have caused deep demoralization
and division in not only the rank and file of the military but
also the people.
In
order to stop the rapid slide towards total breakdown in the country
and to avert its disintegration, saner and patriotic elements
in the military establishment must prevail on Musharraf to make
room for the return of genuine political leadership. Free and
fair elections under an independent election commission incorporating
the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan be held before it is too
late. In the meanwhile leaders like Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif
be invited to return home to help salvage the situation.
It
is time to learn a lesson from the Soviet history. Perhaps the
biggest army in the world that the Soviet Union had, could not
stop its disintegration against the wishes of the people of the
federating units who had become disenchanted in the system because
of the overwhelming role of the KGB, its military and overbearing
bureaucracy that were consuming the bulk of the money and resources
leaving hardly anything for the progress and prosperity of the
people.
Pakistan is fast becoming a model on that pattern. It needs to
be stopped before it trips over the edge of precipice.
The
writer is a former Pakistan High Commissioner to UK.
