Natwar's
Surprise for Musharraf: A Pipeline or a Pipedream
By
C. Raja Mohan
ISLAMABAD:
If the Pakistani establishment was puzzled by the External Affairs
Minister, Natwar Singh's initial emphasis on the Simla agreement,
it should be pleasantly surprised by his positive views on the
overland natural gas pipeline from Iran.
In
an interview published in the latest issue of India Today,
Mr. Singh is quoted as saying that India is "willing to consider
the Iran-India gas pipeline if Pakistan provides us with international
security guarantees"... Pakistan has, for some time now,
offered such assurances at the verbal level and expressed readiness
to negotiate with India the details.
(Pakistan
has subsequently offered whatever guarantees India may be asking
for, the details of which may be discussed and negotiated in coming
weeks and months).
On the face of it, Mr. Singh's remarks
constitute a change in the Indian position on proposal to transport
natural gas from Iran to India overland through Pakistani territory.
Until now, India has resisted engaging Pakistan on the subject
and found ways to postpone a decision on the so-called "peace
pipeline" in its talks with Iran.
But
analysts here wonder whether Mr. Singh's remarks were off-the-cuff
or represent a serious intent to change course on a project that
could significantly transform the geopolitics of the region. Would
he correct himself on the pipeline once he finds the depth of
bureaucratic and political resistance in the Indian system? Or
will he really push for the proposal?
By
signaling a new line on a complex issue through the media, Mr.
Singh might have lost a valuable opportunity to leverage the potential
change of tack in India's engagement with Pakistan and Iran. A
well-prepared and appropriately timed proposal from India on the
pipeline could have made a big regional and international impact.
At present, it merely fuels speculation.
For years now, Iran has been pressing India to build on the complementarities
in the energy sector. Iran has an abundance of natural gas resources
and India is one of the biggest markets. Volatility of India-Pakistan
relations, however, has been the biggest political hurdle.
Given its expanding political relations
with Teheran, India could not say "no" to the Iranian
proposal to run the pipeline through Pakistani territory. Citing
security considerations, India has drawn Iran into prolonged technical
negotiations in the last three years.
Pakistan too has been enthusiastic
about the pipeline project, for it sees enormous gains in terms
of transit fees on the Iranian gas piped to India through its
territory. Gen. Musharraf has publicly backed the trilateral project
and declared his willingness to address all Indian concerns on
the security of the pipeline.
Within the Indian establishment,
however, there were many concerns. Can India rely on gas supplies
running through Pakistan? Will not Pakistan turn off the tap at
will? How vulnerable are Indian down-stream investments linked
to energy supply through Pakistan?
Many analysts in India, however,
believe the risks on assured supply could in fact be managed.
In the end, the Government of Atal
Bihari Vajpayee had come up with a different argument —
Pakistan cannot "cherry-pick" items of economic cooperation
with India. It pointed to Pakistan's opposition to normal trade
relations with India, while supporting the pipeline project.
Until
now, the signal from New Delhi has been that India will be prepared
to explore the pipeline project when Pakistan was ready for broad
based economic cooperation with India and offered minimum trading
privileges to it under the rules of World Trade Organization.
Is Natwar Singh suggesting India's
readiness to move forward on the pipeline without demanding a
quid pro quo from Pakistan on other economic items on the bilateral
agenda?
The Ministry of Petroleum, naturally has a major voice in the
final decision on the energy diplomacy with Pakistan. With Mani
Shankar Aiyar becoming the Petroleum Ministry of India, some would
argue, the internal balance within New Delhi could shift in favor
of the pipeline.
In the mid 1990s when the Congress
Government was in power, Mr. Aiyar was part of a Track Two task
force on pipelines that included analysts from India, Pakistan
and the United States.
The Task Force had recommended ways
in which Indian security concerns could be addressed in building
pipelines from Central Asia and Iran that will have to run through
Pakistan. Mr. Aiyar's strong preference was for the Iran pipeline,
rather than the Central Asian one the Americans were then interested
in.
Despite
its continuing animus towards Teheran, the U.S. is unlikely to
oppose the Iran pipeline to India. Many in the U.S. now believe
that it could help expand India-Pakistan economic cooperation
and stabilize their political relations.
The former External Affairs Minister,
Jaswant Singh, sitting in the Opposition benches until 1998, was
also part of the same Task Force. Despite the bipartisan political
support, the pipeline proposal has languished amid bureaucratic
opposition in New Delhi.
There has been strong commercial
support too. The Australian energy company, Broken Hill Property
had, on its own, conducted a feasibility study on the project
a few years ago. The Indian corporate heavyweight, Reliance, has
reportedly been enthusiastic about the Iran pipeline.
But
there is nothing to suggest that opposition within New Delhi has
come down in any way. If Natwar Singh is really serious about
the project, the Ministry of External Affairs has a huge task
in getting the rest of the system buy into the Iran gas pipeline.-
The Hindu
